•       Yellow Circle:  This is the highest risk area due to potential lava flows, heavy ash fall, and fissure eruptions.  If Fogo were to have a more explosive, pre-1785 style eruption, then this area would also be at high risk of ballistic projection of pyroclasts.¹

•        Black Circle:  This is where there would be a high threat of lava flow (though not as fast or dangerous as that within the yellow circle).  If the eruption were explosive enough, this area would also be at risk of pyroclastic fallout.

•       Blue Circle:  There remains a threat of lava flow here, but the lava would be moving relatively slowly.  Any area outside of the caldera has a fairly low hazard because of the natural protection provided by the caldera.¹

•        Red Circle:  Everywhere within this circle (the whole island) is at risk of ash fall and of fissure eruptions.  Because the wind is predominantly coming from the north-east, the ash fall would probably be particularly heavy on the south-west part of the island.  I would also argue that this entire area is at risk of lahars because Fogo is often in a drought but will have occasional tropical downpours.²  While these downpours are unlikely, if they were to occur the entire island would be put at risk.

*The above map assumes that the eruption is similar to the one in 1995.

**See Lava Flows and Risks for more information.