What I Guessed

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When I was asked to guess how many people in ward 8 of Washington D.C. had AIDS all I could think about was what congressmen or senator had jurisdiction of that area. I had no idea of what the population was, let alone the amount of AIDS cases. Although I only lived ten minutes away from D.C., whenever I went I would go to a very populated area. My perception on the D.C. metro area was far from reality. I would only make the ten-minute drive if I were attending a Nationals or Wizards game, into Georgetown to go shopping, or to Capitol Hill where herds of cops and gray and black suits would be parading the streets.

Finally, when asked how many cumulative AIDS cases have been reported in ward 8, I guessed 15,000. The correct amount was 1,303. When asked what percent were female, I guessed 58%, the answer was 36%.

The bottom line is that coming from Alexandria to D.C. I perceived the population to be a lot higher than the actual numbers. My guess for how many cases of AIDS were in each ward was so skewed because I believed there to be not only more people, but more of a problem as well.

I have constantly been struck by the size of the homeless population in Washington, and specifically by how many of those living on the streets are women. Because I’m female, I inherently notice this statistic; and perhaps it has been exaggerated in my head. When asked to guess the percent of AIDS cases occurring in women, the image of Union Station’s homeless benches – serving as temporary beds for what seemed to be a disproportionate number of women – flashed before my eyes. I associated poverty with high HIV rates, and subsequently believed that the percent female would be high.

Then I was asked to guess what percent of the cumulative AIDS cases for Washington D.C. resulted from heterosexual contact and I guessed high. Where I grew up it was a very heterosexual white area. I never went to the notoriously gay area known as DuPont Circle. My parents told me about it and I would see men holding hands as I drove through. The places that I spent the most time in were not predominantly gay so therefore, I assumed that AIDS was spread from mostly heterosexual contact.